Insights

January may be dry, but the rest of the year isn’t. While drinkers worldwide participate in Dry January by staying sober throughout the month, the average drinker isn’t planning to change their longer-term drinking habits. We’ve found aggregate Consumption Intent ¹, ² which measures if people plan to drink more, less, or the same over the next year, didn’t change from December to January over the last three years. This lack of movement indicates that while some drinkers may be taking a break in January, they aren’t planning to cut back on drinking for the rest of the year. We have seen some notable recent trends. Examining 80,000 pieces of feedback from the past year across 68 popular alcohol brands, we find: Age makes a difference: Alcohol Consumption Intent as of mid-January has remained relatively stable for drinkers under 40, while it has increased year-over-year for drinkers over 40. Wine (+3%) is up the most year-over-year, ahead of beer and hard seltzer (both flat), although wine has fallen slightly in recent months. Brown liquor is having a moment. Since the summertime, rum and whiskey are up in Consumption Intent while vodka and tequila are flat or down. However, rum’s Consumption Intent is starting to fall again after a late summer, early fall surge.

Shein and Temu offer customers a seemingly unlimited number of styles at low, low costs. Sure, shipping from China to the US can take weeks and the clothing might not last as long as their more expensive counterparts, but shoppers have long put these issues aside to experience the joy of unboxing hauls on camera. That compromise may be coming to an end. Shoppers are telling HundredX that the value of Shein and Temu products is slipping. They still like the prices, but increasingly say they dislike their quality. Customers are also souring on the brands’ values and trustworthiness in light of recent copyright, workplace, and sustainability issues, and are now indicating they plan to shop less at Shein and Temu than they used to. Digging into the data, which includes more than 260,000 pieces of customer feedback on Fashion brands (including 6,200 pieces on Shein and Temu) over the past year, we find: Shoppers are saying they plan to purchase less from Shein and Temu. Purchase Intent ¹,² fell rapidly for Shein (-8%) and Temu (-14%) over the past six months. It’s down for all age groups, but sank more for shoppers over 40. Purchase Intent for comparable fast fashion brands³ remained relatively stable. Following a copyright lawsuit against Shein over the summer, perception⁴ towards Shein’s brand values and trustworthiness fell 4%. Temu meanwhile, is down 2% over the past six months. Shopper perception toward value fell 6% for Shein and 8% for Temu over the past six months, while falling just 2% for comparable fast fashion brands. Shoppers still love Shein’s and Temu’s prices, but increasingly dislike the quality of their products. Over the past six months, perception toward quality fell 6% for Shein and 18% for Temu while rising 1% for other fast fashion brands. At the same time, quality has risen in importance to customers, with 75% of HundredX respondents now listing quality as a reason they like or dislike Shein and Temu. One shopper summed up customer sentiment in a comment to HundredX in September, “You never know what you’re going to get with Shein. Sometimes it’s really good, other times it can be really bad. Their quality of products is inconsistent. Buying from them can be a gamble. At least their prices are fair.”

As the holidays quickly approach, consumers are already opening their wallets at unprecedented levels. A record 200.4 million people scoured stores and websites from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation, leading the organization to predict record holiday spending up 3% to 4% vs. last year. With many people watching to see if the strong spending growth continues through the end of the year, softer HundredX datapoints for November indicate that growth may moderate a bit and buyers are starting to feel some pricing fatigue , particularly for digital services. Analyzing millions of pieces of customer feedback from July 2021 across 80+ industries and 3,000+ companies, we find: HundredX’s Net Purchase Intent ¹,² Index fell 1% over the past month, indicating customers expect to keep spending but may grow that spend less in the coming months. We will look to the December datapoint to see if a softening trend may be emerging. Over the past month, customers’ aggregate perception of prices across the economy fell by about 1.5%, putting it at its lowest level since May and showing inflation’s stickiness. Perception improved from a trough in summer 2022 to a recent peak in July 2023, but has fallen 3 of 4 months since then. Changes in HundredX’s Price favorability³ index are typically inversely correlated with movement in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price levels (i.e. inflation) reported by the US government. Customers feel increasingly disenchanted with the prices of digital goods and services. Price favorability fell 4% - 6% over the past three months for video games, video streaming, business software, and cable and internet providers – more than any other industries. The discontent reflects backlash against game and software developers increasingly turning to subscriptions, and the rising costs of video streaming services. Usage Intent² (video streaming, business software) and Purchase Intent (video games) fell 1% - 3% over the past three months.

Following a backlash over its Pride Month collection , Target is beginning to show signs of recovery in its growth outlook versus other superstores. This trend is reminiscent of Bud Light's gradual recovery in our data after its marketing controversy. Target experienced a 9% decrease in Purchase Intent 1,2 from April through August, but recent data points to a turnaround with a 2% increase through October. On the other hand, Walmart has been relatively unchanged, the same as other superstores BJ’s, Sam’s Club, and Costco.  Examining 155,000 pieces of customer feedback across 8 superstore brands and more than 180,000 pieces of feedback across 62 grocery brands, October 2022 through October 2023, we find: Walmart saw a slight Purchase Intent increase (+1%) during Target’s decline. It’s been holding steady since Target’s recovery. Gen-Z and Millennials are driving Target’s recovery ; Purchase Intent among this age group rebounded 4% since August compared to the 2% by older generations. Target’s grocery business is also showing signs of Purchase Intent improvement , while Whole Foods has been declining since April. While customers view Target’s prices less favorably than competing stores, they are slowly warming to its prices. Price favorability 3 rose 3% for Target since August, reflecting credit from customers for price cuts, while Walmart fell 1%.

As job growth slows and student loan payments fully resume, consumers appear to be hanging in there. They revealed to HundredX improved perceptions of prices, likely signaling inflationary pressures continue to moderate; and Purchase Intent trends that support a stable consumer spending growth outlook. Over the past two months, customers’ overall perception of prices across all industries was up by 1%, reversing some of the 3% decline we saw over the past few months and indicating inflation may have improved last month . Changes in HundredX’s Price favorability¹,² index are typically inversely correlated with movement in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price levels (i.e. inflation) reported by the US government. HundredX’s Net Purchase Intent Index picked up slightly over the past few months, gaining 2% from June through October and indicating consumer spending growth outlook is picking up. Analyzing millions of pieces of customer feedback from July 2021 across 82 industries and 3,000+ companies, we find: Price sentiment and demand outlooks for weight loss and diet programs are being buoyed by increased promotions, as hype for diabetes and weight loss drugs like Wegovy, Ozempic, and Mounjaro reaches new peaks. Price sentiment for weight loss and diet programs increased by 5% over the past three months , more than all the industries we track except for home & furnishings. Usage Intent ³ increased for weight loss programs during that time (+1%), likely driven by recent promotional activity as well as the industry’s push to go digital, lowering costs by slicing in-person classes and offering more digital discounts. However, customer comments indicate that, after the new or extended promotion offers expire, many customers plan to cancel, citing high prices. Out of the biggest weight loss and diet programs, price sentiment grew the most (+8%) for Jenny Craig over the last three months. The company officially closed in May but was recently reborn as a healthy meal-kit service after being purchased by Wellful, Inc. Customers like the price, value, and ease of use of the new model. Since Jenny Craig relaunched in September, sentiment toward value improved by 4% vs the industry and ease of use improved by 6% vs the industry. Still, it doesn’t seem quite enough to keep customers interested – Usage Intent fell 4% vs the industry as customers feel Jenny Craig’s quality has dipped. Customers are continuing to balk at the price of streaming services as many raise prices. Price perception toward video streaming services fell 6% over the past three month, as Apple TV Plus, Disney Plus, Hulu, Max, Netflix, Paramount Plus, and Peacock all raised prices this year. The price changes didn’t have material impacts on Usage Intent over the last three months for the group, although it fell for some services. Hulu (-2%) and Apple TV+ (-2%) declined the most compared to other top streaming services.

Instacart is set for its first earnings report as a public company later this week. The company’s stock price has lagged since its high-profile IPO, as focus on potential for weakening consumer spend and slower revenue growth for Instacart heading into 2024 has increased. Insights from “The Crowd” of real Instacart and food delivery customers supports the view growth rates are likely to slow over the next 6-12 months. However, our analysis of over 280,000 pieces of feedback on grocers leads us to believe Instacart has a huge opportunity to gain market share and re-accelerate growth by targeting the nearly 96% of grocery customers we find primarily pick up groceries in store instead of getting them delivered. That percentage is unchanged from a year ago, implying online delivery platforms are not shifting grocery customer’s primary shopping habits. However, there is a lot for delivery platforms to gain from even modest success making progress. We take a close look at Instacart, traditional grocers like Walmart and Kroger that have been increasing their attention to online delivery services and food delivery platforms like Uber Eats and DoorDash who have recently expanded their services into the grocery delivery space. We find Instacart has an opportunity to tap into a huge market of in-store grocery customers, but this will require continued excellence on delivery speed and order accuracy and increased focus on quality of produce and product substitutes. Analyzing more than 375,000 pieces of feedback across the grocery and food & product delivery industry since January 2022, including more than 12,000 on Instacart, we find: All food delivery has experienced a slowdown in demand outlook this year. Instacart has seen Usage Intent¹'² fall 3% since March, more than Uber Eats (1%) and DoorDash (2%). Purchase Intent for grocery customers that primarily shop via delivery was down 4%. A review of the leading traditional grocers shows that Walmart is the clear leader in home delivery. Over 8% of its grocery customers in the last year said they primarily use delivery, 4% higher than the industry average. As of October 2023, Walmart increased the percentage of people primarily using delivery by 3% while others were flat. Walmart had the highest customer net favorability ³ towards online ordering/delivery of the major grocers we track, beating the average grocer by 16%. For Instacart to win share, it should focus on delivery speed, order accuracy and good products available at a reasonable price. Speed and checkout were the top reasons grocery customers who primarily shop online said they were positive on their experience. Availability and cost/fees were their top weaknesses. A review of customer comments about both leading national grocers and Instacart highlights an opportunity to gain share by doing a better job with the quality of produce delivered and the product replacement choices. Instacart remains well ahead of Uber Eats and Doordash on Speed and Order Accuracy. However, its net favorability toward Order Accuracy has rapidly declined since May (-10%), causing its lead over Uber Eats and Door Dash to contract significantly.

In our June analysis , we found customer sentiment toward the Bud brands had plummeted, and some beer brands positioned to gain market share from Bud following Bud Light's Dylan Mulvaney marketing controversy. Months later, Bud appears to be in the early stages of a rebound, albeit very slow for now. Examining 25,000 pieces of feedback across 13 popular beer brands, including more than 4,000 for Bud Light and 2,000 for Budweiser, we find: Beer drinkers are very slowly starting to warm to Bud brands’ values and trustworthiness again. After falling more than 30% from March through June, customer perception¹'² toward Bud brands’ values grew 1% - 2% since June; a small step, but a step nonetheless. Budweiser in particular is starting to please with its famous Clydesdale ads again. Customer perception towards Budweiser’s ads clawed back 11% since falling over 50% from March to June . Customers are thinking about drinking more Bud as they put its recent marketing challenges behind them. Consumption Intent ³ bottomed out around July and has since grown 5% for Bud Light and 1% for Budweiser. Still, Bud and Bud Light’s Consumption Intent have significant ground to make up after falling 45% and 36% respectively from March to July while other beer brands⁴ were up 2%. Coors and Corona seemed to benefit the most from Buds’ decline. The brands gained moderate Consumption Intent (6% and 4% respectively) from March through July. But, those gains are in reverse as customers are turning back to Bud. Bud Light Consumption Intent fell far more for male and white customers compared to females and customers from other races. Interestingly, there wasn’t much of a difference between under-50- and over-50-year-olds.

Recent strength in feedback from “the Crowd” of real AT&T customers, in comparison to the other Big Two mobile carriers, aligned with AT&T better-than-expected earnings report on October 19th. HundredX data also indicates weakenin g Loyalty Intent 1,2 in Ve rizon and growing strength in T-Mobile, which should result in share continuing to shift away from Verizon towards AT&T and T-Mobile into 2024. Our data affirms a generally consensus view across the industry, which is Verizon is going to continue losing ground to AT&T and T-Mobile over the next 6-12 months, which are undercutting Verizon on price while offering increasingly robust coverage and speeds. We’ve found AT&T in particular is pulling Gen-Z and millennial customers away from Verizon. Analyzing more than 70,000 pieces of feedback from wireless customers, September 2022 through September 2023, we found: Verizon’s Loyalty Intent fell 6% in the last three months, while T-Mobile and AT&T gained 4% and 3% respectively. Customers continue to view Verizon as best-in-class for network speed, coverage, and quality, but AT&T is starting to catch up, with customer perceptio n ³ towards these factors increasing. 5G has jumped in importance as networks expand and more people get 5G phones. T-Mobile is the leader in perception towards 5G, followed by AT&T and then Verizon. 5G is now selected 8th out of 16 drivers of satisfaction we track, up from 16th two years ago. Once viewed as the middle ground between Verizon’s network quality and T-Mobile’s affordable prices, AT&T is particularly gaining ground with Gen-Z and millennial customers. Over the past few months, Loyalty Intent for young adults rose 8% for AT&T, while falling 10% for Verizon. At the same time, perception toward AT&T’s price, 5G, speed, and coverage improved significantly for young adults.

Customers are questioning the brand values and trustworthiness of the auto industry after the United Auto Workers (UAW) launched a strike against Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, but it isn’t impacting their loyalty yet. We believe it is most likely because the strikes are not materially impacting customer perception of vehicle availability, pricing and service levels yet. But as the strike continues into its second month, that could soon change. We’ll be monitoring for loyalty and market share shifts. The strikes started on September 15. As of October 15, more than 30,000 UAW members have walked out of assembly plants to demand better pay and benefits. Analyzing more than 85,000 pieces of customer feedback across 45 auto brands from September 2022 through mid-October 2023, we find: In general, customers feel worse about the brand value and trustworthiness of the big three U.S. automakers. ¹ , ² Since August, sentiment toward brand values fell 2% for Ford and Stellantis brands, and 1% for General Motors brands ³ , while staying stable for the rest of the industry. That brand value dip hasn’t translated to dips in customer loyalty, however. Brand loyalty⁴ actually grew for the big three automakers over the past month. While some believed Tesla could be a beneficiary, its Loyalty Intent has actually dropped more than all other auto makers since August (down 7%), reversing all gains over the summer from its April price cuts. It announced another round of price cuts last week.

Former Express Scripts boss Tim Wentworth takes the reigns as the new CEO at Walgreens at a pivotal juncture. Strong competitors like Walmart are making strides in the pharmacy aisle, while Walgreens pharmacists are protesting what they view as insufficient staffing and resources to do their jobs safely and ethically for their patients. Walmart Pharmacy has long been a leader on price, and over the past year it has also become a leader in customer satisfaction with its pharmacy services and speed/checkout. While Walgreens has struggled in these areas versus peers, in recent months customers feel it has improved and is closing the gap with Walmart. Wentworth will need to cut through the noise and identify what will move the needle most for Walgreens in his first 90 days. While employees feel stores are understaffed, customers sharing feedback with HundredX actually rank Walgreens as a leader in both store and health services, and middle of the pack on speed and checkout. The real issue, according to customers, appears to be its employees’ knowledge and attitude, where it lags its peers. Analyzing over 70,000 pieces of customer feedback across 12 pharmacy brands, from September 2022 through September 2023, we find: Walgreens’ growth outlook is improving , with a 1% increase in Purchase Intent ¹ , ² over the past three months while most other leading brands were flat to down. Some key reasons for the improvement include progress for Walgreens’ pharmacy services, speed, and checkout recently. Net favorability ³ for pharmacy services and speed/checkout were +4% and +2% over the last quarter. Walgreens should continue to lean into its leadership in satisfaction with health and store services. The management team seems to be appropriately focused on this opportunity based on its comments on its October 12 earnings call. The challenge lies in maintaining this lead amidst staffing woes and recent employee walkouts. Its recent unveiling of new virtual healthcare services should help. Meanwhile, after improvements over the year, Walmart is now the leader in customer satisfaction with pharmacy services, passing Kroger and Costco. In the digital arena, Walgreens and Walmart exhibit closely matched customer perception concerning website and app usability. With a 1% rise in Purchase Intent for customers who primarily shop online since May, the emphasis on digital platforms makes sense. Wentworth’s experience with digital pharmacies should be useful here.

As the Fed and consumers continue to navigate a very tricky economic environment, we look at what areas are seeing price sentiment shift the most for insight into how it will likely impact consumer behavior. Over the past two months, customers’ overall perception of prices across all industries has fallen by 3%, negating the gains we observed earlier this year and indicating inflation probably has not come down in the last month. Changes in HundredX’s Price favorability ¹,² index are typically inversely correlated with movement in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price levels (i.e. inflation) reported by the US government. HundredX’s Net Purchase Intent Index remained stable in September, indicating the consumer demand outlook is pretty unchanged despite stubborn inflation. Online and app-based services, initially lauded as market disruptors for their affordability, now face users grappling with their climbing costs. Interestingly, the spike in the cost of streaming services seems to be reviving interest in cable.

Discount stores are a bargain hunter's paradise, but they often lack the cleanliness and organized appeal of grocery and superstores. Recently, several leading national publications have explored the unclean and unsafe conditions in discount stores, with much of their insights gathered through employee interviews. Many focused specifically on Dollar General, one of the fastest growing discount stores in the U.S. While employee testimonials provide a valuable inside view, it's the opinions of the everyday shoppers that ultimately determines how much a brand can grow. Looking to “The Crowd” of shoppers that visit discount stores across the country, we find that while shoppers do find Dollar General unclean, they don’t seem to care. The brand’s low prices, combined with its growing selection of items, are keeping customers coming back. It will need to continue delivering on these value propositions in order to sustain recent improvements to its growth outlook. As one discount store shopper expressed to HundredX in September, “People do not go to [discount stores] expecting good customer service and cleanliness, they go for inexpensive products.”

The streaming industry has made progress but still has further to go navigating one of its biggest hurdles in years – production delays for movies and shows resulting from Hollywood writers and actors going on strike. To make up for the hole, platforms have turned to alternatives such as more international content, unscripted / reality shows and live events streaming on multiple channels simultaneously. At the same time, industry heavy hitters like Disney+, Hulu, and Netflix tweaked their prices, which annoyed customers already grappling with inflation. Viewers seemingly haven’t been satisfied with the content substitutions and plan changes, as the strikes and price adjustments seem to have contributed to a 1% dip in Usage Intent ¹,² across the streaming industry that began in May through August. It appears ending the strikes and getting new content back on the platforms needs to be a top strategic priority, particularly for Disney and Netflix, who have seen the biggest recent drops in Usage Intent. The Writers Guild (WGA) ended its strike September 27, while the Screen Actor’s Guild (SAG-AFTRA) is expected to meet with studios to find a resolution soon. The industry hopes it can next reach agreements with the actors who are still on strike soon. Analyzing more than 100,000 pieces of customer feedback across 23 video streaming services, we find:

Apparel and athleticwear retailers have seen material slowdowns in their businesses amid rising inflation and the looming resumption of student loan repayments, raising the level of debate about the health of Nike’s business heading into its Q1 2024 earnings report. Insights from “The Crowd” of real shoppers indicates Nike’s business should have seen some downward pressure in recent months but appears more resilient than most others. Despite the economic headwinds, we find Nike's direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel has bucked the trend with a modest 2% uptick in Purchase Intent ¹ , ² year-over-year in August for the Nike Store, unlike retail partners DSW and Foot Locker who are witnessing dips in both Purchase Intent and reported US sales. However, HundredX did see Purchase Intent for people under 40 dip 1% in August vs. July 2023, the first decline in over a year. This indicates demand growth is starting to crack among Gen Z and millennials, important customer groups for the sportswear company. While young adults still love the swoosh, the impending crunch on disposable income might pose a problem for Nike in the coming months. Analyzing more than 260,000 pieces of feedback across apparel, fashion, and footwear stores over the last year, including more than 20,000 on just Nike, we find: